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2016 Election Wrap-up: What we learned from Dashboard Intelligence


As we mentioned in our last blog, polling numbers for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump became increasingly close leading up to Election Day. On November 8 the American people voted, and Mr. Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States.

Netvibes election dashboard

For the past several months, we’ve been analyzing news, social media, polling data and other information in Netvibes’ live 2016 Election Dashboard. Now that the race is over, we’re looking back at the data to see what Dashboard Intelligence can tell us about Election 2016.

Emails: Clinton’s Achilles heel

Throughout the 2016 race, we noted that candidate scandals, such as Clinton’s emails, were drawing more attention than traditional election issues, such as tax plans. This pattern intensified toward the end of the race, with multiple “October Surprise” scandals erupting in the final weeks. The shocking climax occurred on October 28 when, just 11 days prior to Election Day, FBI Director James Comey announced that new emails had been found related to Clinton’s private server investigation.

As we wrote in an October blog, the candidates’ various scandals did not seem to impact their favorability ratings over the long term. In the short term immediately following a breaking scandal, both Trump and Clinton saw dings to favorability and polling numbers, but these numbers tended to recover quickly once the scandal blew over. (Read the Netvibes blog for the full analysis). However, we also noticed that Clinton recovered from her scandals more slowly than Trump, and we wondered whether 11 days would be enough time for her to recover from the last-minute FBI bombshell.

It takes some time for events such as this to show up in the polls. When we look at the polling numbers for the brief 11 days before the election, it is difficult to tell whether Clinton’s poll numbers took a dive as a result of Comey’s announcement. What is clear, however, is that the race had greatly tightened by the end. On November 6, poll numbers were virtually tied with Clinton at 44.43% and Trump at 43.93%.

Trump vs Clinton polling data

Looking at the overall trend in scandals, we can see spikes in mentions when each scandal erupted. The single biggest spike was around Clinton’s health following the September 11 memorial service, but that scandal blew over quickly. Clinton’s emails, on the other hand, were a factor throughout the race and exploded larger than ever following the October 28 FBI announcement.

all-scandals-over-time

 

Undeniably, the email scandal hurt Clinton’s chances for the presidency. According to 2016 exit polls, 63% of voters said they were bothered “a lot” or “some” by Clinton’s private email issue. Among that group of voters, 70% voted for Trump versus 24% for Clinton.

Were the polls wrong?

It’s worth asking if the polls were plain wrong in 2016. After all, Dashboard Intelligence can only be as good as the data that you put in. As late as Election Day, the poll aggregators at 538 gave Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Reuters gave Clinton a 90% chance of victory. Of course, we know how that turned out.

But when we look at the numbers, the polls actually weren’t that far off. At the end, the candidates were virtually tied in the national polls with Clinton at 44.43% and Trump at 43.93%. Although ballots are still being counted, it appears that Clinton won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points: Clinton 48% versus Trump 46.6%. Trump, however, won the Electoral College vote and the presidency.

Top issues (Jun-Nov): Foreign policy and immigration

Although they attracted fewer mentions than candidate scandals, election issues were an important part of the 2016 conversation as well. For the last 5 months of the race, the most-popular issues discussed were:

  1. Foreign policy (8.11%)
  2. Immigration (6.09%)
  3. Tax plans (4.69%)
  4. Healthcare (3.19%)

But as we can see, the scandals dominated over the issues, especially Clinton’s email scandal that reached 44.2% of share of voice. Trump’s biggest scandal, sexual assault allegations, was mentioned in 12.92% of articles and posts.

Candidate scandal mentions

 

Top issues (Oct-Nov): Foreign policy and healthcare

When we look at just the final month of the race (Oct. 8 – Nov. 8), we see that scandals take up an even greater percentage of the overall conversation. In the final month, scandals account for a whopping 84.23% of share of voice, dominated by Clinton’s emails at 53.6% and Trump’s assaults at 24.73%. The most popular election issues discussed in the last month were:

  1. Foreign policy (4.58%)
  2. Healthcare (4.15%)
  3. Tax plans (2.88%)
  4. Climate change (1.65%)

Scandals vs issues - Election 2016

 

Conservative vs. Liberal vs. Nonpartisan media

When we analyze media coverage by different types of publications (see our dashboard sources here), we notice some interesting trends. Partisan media (including both liberal-leaning and conservative-leaning outlets) wrote more often about scandals (versus issues) by a nearly 5:1 margin. While nonpartisan media also wrote more about the scandals than issues, the margin was much closer, with roughly 2.5 scandal articles for every 1 article on the issues.

Partisan vs Nonpartisan media on scandals vs issues

 

It appears that conservative media was more partisan than liberal media. Looking at overall share of voice, conservative outlets published nearly twice as many pro- and anti-candidate articles as liberal publications. However, the conservatives were much better at focusing on the positives of their candidate. Pro-Trump articles from the right were by far the most common type published, while pro-Clinton articles from the left were relatively rare.

Partisan media share-of-voice:

  • Conservative pro-Trump (46.65%)
  • Conservative anti-Clinton (22.2%)
  • Liberal anti-Trump (20.22%)
  • Liberal pro-Clinton (10.93%)

Sentiment analysis: liberal vs conservative media

 

The 2016 U.S. Election is now over, but there’s always more to learn from Dashboard Intelligence. For analysis on the 2017 French election, check out Netvibes’ live dashboard and blog (in French). We will also combine data from the U.S. Election, UK’s Brexit, and other European elections to analyze global trends that may help us predict future election results. Stay tuned.

Want a demo of Netvibes dashboards? Contact us.

 

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca and Garrett Flanagan of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are our own, not our employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

Election Day! Here’s where the race stands


Today is Election Day in the United States, and tonight we find out who will be the next American President: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump. We’ve been collecting and analyzing data around the race—including news, social media, polling data and more—in Netvibes’ live Election Dashboard. Check out the Election Dashboard here, and read below for the latest insights.

Netvibes election dashboard

 

Polling data

Looking at the polling data (source: Huffington Post), we can see that the presidential race has tightened in the last few weeks. Clinton is just ahead of Trump in the polling averages, with 43.431% for Clinton and 41.476% for Trump.

Clinton vs Trump polling averages

 

Clinton has caught up with Trump in number of mentions

Throughout the 2016 race, Trump has tended to attract more news and social mentions than Clinton. However, Clinton’s share of voice has been growing over the past month, and today the two candidates are running roughly equal in terms of mentions. Trump’s peak in mentions occurred on October 10, the day after the second presidential debate and at the height of Trump’s “locker room talk” scandal. Clinton’s highest day of mentions during the entire race was yesterday, November 7, as her campaign speeds toward the finish line.

Clinton vs Trump mentions

 

Who will win the election? Stay tuned as we find out tonight. After the campaign ends, we will take a look back at the data in the Election Dashboard to examine lessons learned and identify key turning points in the race.

Want a demo of Netvibes dashboards? Contact us.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

 

October Surprise Extravaganza: How scandals are impacting #Election2016


The past month has been full of “October Surprises” for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. To recap: On October 7, Trump’s infamous “locker room talk” tape was released. On October 12, several women began coming forward to accuse Trump of sexual assault. Beginning on October 7 and continuing each morning since then, Wikileaks has been publishing damaging email dumps hacked from John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman. Then, on October 28 came the biggest surprise yet: the FBI has discovered new emails that may impact its probe into Clinton’s email scandal.

With just one week remaining until votes are counted on November 8, we are analyzing the data in our 2016 Election Dashboard to see how the race is shifting in the final days. Read our insights below, or check out the data for yourself using Netvibes’ live dashboard: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/

Election dashboard

Scandals versus Election Issues

Throughout the 2016 U.S. presidential race, we’ve noted that multiple candidate scandals have largely overshadowed traditional election issues, such as tax plans and healthcare, across news stories and social media. The scandal trend shows no signs of slowing down in the final week of the race.

How are scandals impacting the race? (Since May)

We have discovered two very different patterns, depending on whether you are looking at the race long-term over the past several months or analyzing just the October data. First, let’s look at the long-term trends.

Favorability ratings

When we look at the long-term trajectory of the data, we can see that various scandals have dinged candidate polling numbers, with numbers then bouncing back as the scandal ages. Over the past few months, the larger trend shows that Clinton’s Favorability ratings are slowly increasing (+0.08%), while Trump’s are slowly decreasing (-0.19%). Peaks in scandals are followed by a temporary dampening in favorability, but they don’t seem to affect the overall trajectory of each candidate’s favorability. For example, when FBI director Comey testified about Clinton’s emails in July, Clinton then had her three lowest weeks of weekly favorability averages. She later rebounded and the overall trend continues upward.

Clinton favorability vs scandals

Trump favorability vs scandals

 

Polling numbers

Looking at the race over the past few months, both candidates’ poll numbers have been increasing in both 2-way (Clinton +0.27%, Trump +0.22%) and 4-way races (Clinton +0.53%, Trump +0.33%). Neither long-term trajectory has been affected by the scandals to date. For example, looking at Clinton’s numbers:

  • September: When we look back at Clinton’s health scare from September, that scandal seemed to have no effect on polls or favorability.
  • July: When Comey recommended no criminal charges around the email scandal in July, it was followed by Clinton’s lowest weekly polling average in a two-way race. Her numbers in a 4-way race at the time weren’t affected. Then what happened to Clinton’s polling the week after? In a 4-way race her polls stayed the same, then fell a little more than a point the week after. In a 2-way race she rebounded by a point and a half and fell by about a point the following week.

Clinton 2-way poll vs. scandals

Clinton 4-way polls vs. scandals

 

However, the October 28 FBI announcement was made just 11 days before the election. Will Clinton’s numbers bounce back in time for November 8?

Interestingly, Trump seems to have a quicker recovery time from his scandals than Clinton. There is a dip in both polls and favorability during the week of his scandal, but it’s followed by an increase in the polls the following week.

Trump 2-way polls vs. scandals

Trump 4-way polls vs. scandals

 

How are scandals impacting the race? (October only)

As we stated above, the larger trend over several months shows that Clinton’s Favorability ratings are slowly increasing (+0.08%), while Trump’s are slowly decreasing (-0.19%). Both candidates’ polling numbers are increasing overall, with Clinton’s numbers showing slightly more growth (in a 2-way race, Clinton +0.27% and Trump +0.22%; in a 4-way race, Clinton +0.53% and Trump +0.33%).

However, when you analyze Polls and Favorability for JUST OCTOBER, this trend reverses: Trump’s favorability is increasing over the past month (+0.08%) while Clinton’s is dropping (-0.13%).

Clinton favorability vs scandals October 2016

Trump favorability vs scandals October 2016

 

Polls are trending upward for both candidates in October, but Trump’s polls are rising much faster, with Trump +0.34% and Clinton +0.02% in a 4-way race. In the 2-way polling for October, Trump is up +0.20% versus Clinton’s +0.07%.

Trump 4-way polls vs scandals October 2016

Clinton 4-way polls vs scandals Oct 2016

 

With just a week remaining until the November 8 election, the race is looking increasingly close. We’ll keep analyzing the data on the Election Dashboard: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  Stay tuned for more insights from the blog.

Want a demo of Netvibes dashboards? Contact us.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

Puppets and Bad Hombres: Media Insights from the Final Presidential Debate


U.S. Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump faced off last night in Las Vegas for the third and final debate before the election on November 8, 2016. What were the top issues from the debate? And how has it impacted the race? We analyzed the data in the Netvibes Election Dashboard to find out.

You can access the dashboard here to explore the data for yourself: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/#Final_Debate

Third debate dashboard

 

The issues

Going into last night’s debate, the most-talked-about issues were:

  1. Immigration
  2. Battles in Aleppo, Syria and Mosul, Iraq
  3. Abortion

Election issues going into debate

 

Following the October 19 debate, all of the issues increased number of mentions. We see that Abortion has jumped to #1 in popular issues, with Immigration in second place.

  1. Abortion
  2. Immigration
  3. Battles in Aleppo, Syria and Mosul, Iraq
  4. Deficit spending / Infrastructure
  5. Entitlements
  6. Second Amendment

Top issues since debate

 

The scandals

Throughout the 2016 race, we’ve seen multiple candidate scandals hijack much of the conversation away from the actual issues. The third debate was no exception, with plenty of name-calling and accusations traded back and forth.

Going into the debate, the top-mentioned scandals were Trump-focused:

  1. Election Rigging
  2. Trump’s sexual assault allegations

Scandals before debate

 

Following the third debate, Election Rigging is still the top scandal, but second place is nearly tied between three scandals, as “Puppet” and “Bad Hombres” go viral.

  1. Trump assault allegations
  2. Who’s the “Puppet”
  3. “Bad Hombres”

Scandals since debate

 

Liberal Media vs. Conservative Media on the issues and scandals

With both issues and scandals competing for attention this election, we wondered if we could spot a difference between the topics covered by liberal-leaning media versus conservative-leaning media. We found that Conservative media focuses a higher percentage of its coverage on the issues, while Liberal media has a higher percentage of scandal stories.

Liberal vs Conservative media on issues and scandals

 

Clinton Foundation vs. Trump Foundation

Both candidates’ eponymous charities were mentioned in the third debate, as Clinton and Trump traded attacks. When we look at the charts, we see that the Clinton Foundation gets far more coverage than the Trump Foundation and also has a much higher proportion of positive mentions.

Clinton Foundation vs Trump Foundation

 

You can see the charts and explore the data for yourself on our live Election Dashboard here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  We’ll keep updating the blog with weekly insights leading up to the November election.

For a free demo of Netvibes Decision-Making Dashboards, please contact us.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

 

Locker room talk and other election issues: Analysis of the Second Presidential Debate


Sunday night, October 9, U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump faced off in a Town Hall, the second televised debate of this election cycle. How has the debate shaped the race? We analyzed the data in Netvibes’ 2016 Election Dashboard to find out.

Second debate dashboard

Top topics before the second debate

The big news story came out on Friday, October 7, when a tape recording surfaced of Trump making offensive comments about women. Trump’s so-called “Locker Room Talk” dominated the news cycle leading up to the Town Hall debate. As we can see in the chart below, the top 2 topics going into the debate were:

  1. Locker room talk
  2. Bill Clinton assaults

Top issues before 2nd debate

Top topics after debate

After the second debate aired on Sunday night, we see the conversation shift a bit. Locker Room Talk is still #1, but Trump’s comments during the debate that Clinton “should be in jail” became the second-most popular topic discussed.

Following the debate, the top 3 topics were:

  1. Locker room talk
  2. Hillary imprisonment / Special prosecutor
  3. Trump breaks with Pence

Top topics after second debate

Sentiment: Emotions are running high

Overall, the conversation around the Town Hall Debate is highly emotionally charged. With most subjects in general, the dashboard charts will typically show a large majority of neutral opinions, with some positive and negative mixed in. However, in this year’s hotly contested election, emotions are running high. All of the top topics from the second debate show an exceptionally high percentage of both negative and positive remarks. Discussions around Trump’s “locker room talk,” for example, trended 38.81% negative, 28.5% positive, and only 32.69% neutral.

Locker room talk sentiment

Sentiment: Conservative vs. Liberal media

Throughout the election, when we compare articles in Conservative vs. Liberal media, we have found that Conservative articles tend to be more negative. HOWEVER, this trend was flipped after last night’s debate. Following the second debate, it is now the Liberal media that is more negative and less neutral.

Sentiment: Conservative vs Liberal media

Could this be a sign that Clinton lost the second debate? We will have to wait and see how polling numbers look when they emerge. For now, Clinton’s lead is strengthening in the polls. As of October 8, Clinton’s polling average was 46.66% versus Trump’s 39.77% (source: Huffington Post).

Clinton vs Trump polls

You can see the charts and explore the data for yourself on our live Election Dashboard here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  We’ll keep updating the blog with weekly insights leading up to the November election.

Is there an election issue you’d like us to explore? Leave a comment below.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

Kaine vs. Pence: How the VP debate influenced #Election2016


On Tuesday night, October 4, U.S. Vice Presidential candidates Tim Kaine and Mike Pence faced off for a televised debate. How was it perceived, and has it shifted the conversation? We analyzed the data in Netvibes’ 2016 Election dashboard to find out.

Election dashboard: VP debate

Who won?

The overall consensus, from both polls and media pundits, seems to be that Republican running mate Mike Pence won the debate. When we look at the data in the Election Dashboard, we can clearly see that Pence has been dominating the conversation since the debate took place on October 4.

Pence vs Kaine mentions

Here’s another way of comparing Pence and Kaine mentions on the dashboard, broken down by sentiment analysis. Since the debate aired on October 4, 61.77% of mentions have been about Pence, versus 38.24% for Kaine. The articles about Kaine are more emotionally charged, with a higher percentage of Positive/Negative mentions versus Pence. In other words, both Pence and Kaine attracted roughly the same number of Positive and Negative mentions, while Pence had far more Neutral mentions (48.5% of the overall articles).

Kaine vs Pence sentiment analysis

Popularity

It may have seemed like mentions of the vice presidential debate were everywhere this week, but in fact, the first presidential debate between Clinton and Trump continued to attract more mentions than the VP debate.

Debate popularity: Presidential vs VP

Moderators: Lester Holt more popular than Elaine Quijano

Just as the presidential debate continues to be more popular than the VP debate, we can see a similar pattern with mentions of the debate moderators. Lester Holt, who moderated the first Clinton-Trump debate, continues to be mentioned in new articles, while Elaine Quijano of the VP debate has garnered far fewer mentions.

Debate moderator mentions

You can see the charts and explore the data for yourself on our live Election Dashboard here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  We’ll keep updating the blog with weekly insights leading up to the November election.

For a free demo of Netvibes Decision-Making Dashboards, please contact us.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

 

How did the first debate impact the 2016 race?


Last Monday, September 26, U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump faced off in the first televised debate of three leading up to the November 8 election. Who won the debate? And how has it impacted this year’s race? We analyzed the data in the 2016 Election Dashboard to find out.

Netvibes Election dashboard

Who won the debate?

There’s no easy answer to this question. Naturally, pundits on both sides disputed who won. In the immediate aftermath, Trump won many of the instant-reaction online polls, though these polls were derided as being unscientific and subject to ballot-stuffing. Later, more formal polls conducted by media organizations found that Clinton was the winner of the debate. CNN’s debate poll named Clinton the winner at 62% versus 27% for Trump.

When we look at the election poll numbers for both candidates, we can see the race has tightened over the past few months. As of October 2, Clinton and Trump are tied in the poll averages with 43.875% each.

Trump vs Clinton polls

Top election issues before and after the debate:

Before the debate, Clinton’s emails were the #1 most-mentioned topic.

Top election issues before debate

However, following the debate, emails fell to #3 behind these most-mentioned election issues:

  • #1 Birther story / Trump is “racist”
  • #2 Climate change
  • #3 Emails
  • #4 Tax returns

Top election issues after debate

This shift in top talking points seems to indicate that Clinton won the debate. Everyone was talking about emails before, and now they’re talking more about climate change, tax returns and the birther controversy, which bodes well for the Democrats. As you’ll recall, Climate Change was the #1 topic at the Democratic National Convention in July.

Alicia Machado: Blast from the past

One subject that was raised by Clinton during the debate and reverberated through the week’s news cycle was Miss Universe 1996, Alicia Machado, who claims she was fat-shamed by Donald Trump. This week was likely the first time you ever heard Ms. Machado’s name. However, when we search for mentions of “Alicia Machado” on the 2016 Election Dashboard, we can see that this story originally surfaced in May 2016. When this storyline first broke back in May, it had a brief 2-day news cycle before completely falling off the media’s radar. Following Clinton’s remarks during the debate, the Alicia Machado story blew up and became an important media influence this week.

Alicia Machado mentions

Debate sentiment:

Overall, there were lots of negative mentions about the debate. On most topics in general, the sentiment tends to be overwhelmingly neutral. What we see here with the first presidential debate is that that people are emotionally engaged with the race. Overall debate mentions were 60.86% neutral, 22.89% positive, and 16.25% negative.

How debate was perceived

When we compare “Conservative Media” with “Liberal Media” (learn more about our sources here), we can see that articles on Conservative Media tend to be more negative than those on Liberal Media, which is a pattern we’ve seen throughout the race. In the week following the debate, mentions on Liberal Media trended 34.71% positive, 12.22% negative, and 6.13% neutral, while Conservative Media was 24.94% positive, 13.11% negative, and 8.89% neutral.

Sentiment in conservative and liberal media

You can see the charts and explore the data for yourself on our live Election Dashboard here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  We’ll keep updating the blog with weekly insights leading up to the November election.

Is there an election issue you’d like us to explore? Leave a comment below.

———

Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

 

2016 election issues: How terrorism and immigration impact the race


The year 2016 has been plagued by near-daily terrorist attacks around the world. Last weekend Americans were targeted in two attacks: nine people were stabbed at a shopping mall in St. Cloud, Minnesota, while several explosive devices were discovered in New York and New Jersey. Fortunately, no one was killed.

To analyze how terrorism is impacting the U.S. Presidential race, we took a look at the data in Netvibes’ 2016 Election Dashboard: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/masterpage#Immigration

Netvibes election dashboard

 

Where terrorism is mentioned: North America and the Middle East

With the Netvibes dashboard, we can create maps to see where conversations are taking place. From a worldwide view, looking at the past 30 days, we can see that terrorism is mentioned most often around North America and the Middle East. Because this particular dashboard is set up to monitor the presidential race in the United States (learn more about the sources we’re analyzing here), it makes sense that North America would have many mentions. However, statistically Middle Eastern countries are most at risk for terrorist attacks, and we see that reflected in this chart as well.

Election dashboard - terrorism mentions

Within North America, terrorism is mentioned most often in New York, Orlando and the United States in general

From this map, we can see that over the past 30 days, most Terrorism mentions involve the United States in general (9.39k). New York/New Jersey follow closely behind in second place with 6.86k, driven up this week by the latest foiled attacks. Florida still remains high, in third place with 3.26k mentions, as articles continue to mention the June 12 Orlando nightclub shooting.

Election dashboard - terrorism mentions

No apparent link between Immigration and Terrorism

Because Donald Trump often links immigration with terrorism in his speeches, we wondered if we could find a similar pattern in the data. When terrorists strike, do people talk more about immigration? The answer seems to be no. In this chart, we see there is no correlation between the datasets. The spikes in Terrorism mentions mostly occur in response to attacks, such as July 14 (Nice, France) and September 19 (St. Cloud, Minnesota and New York/New Jersey). There was also a jump in Terrorism mentions on August 15 when Trump spoke about his terrorism plan. The jump in Immigration mentions can be attributed to Donald Trump’s immigation policy speech on August 25.

Election dashboard - immigration vs terrorism mentions

Immigration has become a top campaign issue

Immigration has become the focus of the Trump campaign since Steve Bannon of Breitbart took over on August 17. In this chart, we can see how mentions have increased in the weeks since.

Netvibes Election dashboard - top issues

Immigration sentiment

On August 25, Trump released his immigration policy, which is more moderate than expected and looks very similar to Jeb Bush’s plan. When we look at news and social sentiment on that day, we see that the initial reaction was largely neutral. Overall sentiment was 82% neutral, 12% positive and 6% negative.

Election dashboard - immigration sentiment

However, on September 1, the day of Trump’s immigration speech and visit to Mexico, we see the immigration conversation became far more polarized, showing 71% neutral, 19% positive and 10% negative.

Election dashboard - immigration sentiment

Clinton isn’t shying away from Immigration, either

Mr. Trump is clearly eager to talk about immigration, but he’s not the only candidate talking about it. This chart shows the top Twitter influencers around Immigration. Hillary Clinton has the third-most mentions, indicating that she would be happy to engage in a debate with Trump on this topic.

Election dashboard - immigration top commenters

You can explore the data for yourself on our 2016 live Election Dashboard. Keep following the blog for more weekly insights leading up to November’s election. You can also sign up for our weekly newsletter here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/#Election_Updates

Is there an election issue you’d like us to explore? Leave a comment below.

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Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

What’s being said about Clinton’s health? Insights from the Election Dashboard


U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton dominated headlines last week after nearly collapsing at the 9/11 memorial service in New York on September 11. Her campaign later announced she was suffering from pneumonia. How has Clinton’s recent health scare impacted the race? Let’s look at the data in Netvibes’ 2016 Election Dashboard to find out.

Netvibes Election Dashboard

Clinton’s health stole the show on 9/11

Perhaps not surprisingly, Clinton’s health scare led the conversation around 9/11. There were more mentions of Clinton’s health than mentions of either candidate in the context of 9/11. Overall, Clinton received many times more mentions around 9/11 than did Trump. This is essentially the opposite of a trend we’ve seen throughout the campaign, where Trump usually gets more mentions than Clinton.

Netvibes election dashboard

Interestingly, Trump garnered fewer 9/11 mentions in September than he did back in April when he was ridiculed for saying the 7/11 attacks. This finding is consistent with a theme we’ve seen throughout the 2016 race: candidate bloopers and scandals attract far more interest than actual election issues.

Netvibes election dashboard

Health mentions exceed other scandals

Since September 11, mentions of Clinton’s health have mostly drowned out coverage of her scandals, such as emails and Benghazi.

Netvibes election dashboard

When we look at the big picture, however, we can see that scandals for both Mr. Trump (Trump University and veterans donations) and Clinton (emails and Benghazi) are continuing to rise in popularity. Throughout the race, scandals have been drawing more mentions than important issues like tax plans and health care.

Netvibes election dashboard

Looking away from the scandals and focusing on actual election issues, we find that the most popular issue is Foreign Policy (33.39%), followed by Climate Change (30.42%), with Tax Plans (23.01%) in third place.

Netvibes election dashboard

The race is tightening

When we look at the polling data (source: Huffington Post), we see that Clinton and Trump are now running nearly even. Clinton holds onto the lead with an average 42% support in polls, with Trump two points behind at 40%.

Netvibes election dashboard

You can see the charts and explore the data for yourself on our live Election Dashboard here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/  We’ll keep updating the blog with weekly insights leading up to the November election.

Is there an election issue you’d like us to explore? Leave a comment below.

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Disclaimers

Written by Kim Terca of Netvibes. Any opinions expressed are my own, not my employer’s.

Analytics are based on a wide variety of online sources collected by the Netvibes dashboard, including news publications, blogs, videos and social media. To see all sources, please visit the Dashboard Tab titled “Sources.” Candidate polling data is sourced from The Huffington Post.

Netvibes’ Election dashboard is meant to provide a neutral analysis of available election data. It should not be considered an official statement by Netvibes, Inc. or Dassault Systèmes.

Video: Comparing the DNC vs. RNC Conventions during Election 2016


With the Netvibes 2016 Election Dashboard analyzing the buzz around the U.S. Presidential election, we took a look at the data from July’s Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Republican National Convention (RNC) to see what differences we could discover between the two events. Watch the webinar video below to see us explore the data live on the dashboard.

Here are a few of the insights we discovered:

Top issues: Climate Change (DNC) vs. Foreign Policy (RNC)

We analyzed which election issues–tax plans, health care, criminal justice, etc.–were mentioned most often in news and social media around the two events. (To see all the sources we’re analyzing, visit the Sources Tab on the dashboard). At the Republicans’ convention, Foreign Policy was the top issue, while Climate Change dominated the conversation around the Democratic convention.

DNC top issues

Top issue at #DNC: Climate Change

 

Top issues RNC

Top issue at #RNC: Foreign Policy

…But Candidate Scandals are more popular than Election Issues

A theme we’ve seen throughout the campaign, the scandals of both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton continue to top the political conversation. During the DNC and RNC conventions, Clinton’s email scandal was the #1 most-discussed topic, followed by her Benghazi scandal, followed by Foreign Policy in third place.

Election dashboard - candidate scandals

Speakers: Michelle Obama stole the show at DNC

We analyzed what was said around the speakers at Day 1 of the Democratic convention, which featured big names including Sarah Silverman and Elizabeth Warren, with Bernie Sanders headlining. As the runner-up candidate for the Democrats’ nomination, Sanders was naturally the most-mentioned person on that list. However, among the other speakers, First Lady Michelle Obama was by far the most popular. Mentions spiked during her convention speech and remained elevated for two days afterward.

Day 1 speakers DNC

Day 1 speakers at DNC: FLOTUS’s speech had staying power.

 

You can explore the charts for yourself on our 2016 live Election Dashboard. Keep following the blog for more weekly insights leading up to November’s election. You can also sign up for our weekly newsletter here: http://electiondashboard.netvibesbusiness.com/#Election_Updates

Netvibes Event Intelligence dashboards make it simple to measure and analyze the buzz around any event. For a free demo, contact us.